This weekend we’ve got an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I do like these ancient cards so I will wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and go out and revel in the remainder of the afternoon once the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will occur in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters producing their UFC debut. Because of this, I think we ought to have a large edge this week if we put in the work. Most casual players will not be doing research on those names they have not heard and will only be throwing lineups trying to get lucky and hit a big score. I’ll be pursuing the large $15k top prize in the $8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at these big prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is a tough card this Sunday and I believe we’ll see a good deal of people making errors in cash games. Whenever I believe I can guarantee a complete 100+ points in a struggle, I like to pile it into my cash games and lock those points. I believe this fight will be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I think we could see numerous knockdowns too that can help, but I think we easily get over 100+ points combined with both of these men. Let us let everyone else make the mistakes and we can lock in a 100+ points and a triumph, then we just need to locate another 3 wins we’re confident in.
GPP play of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe this matchup was set up for Bermudez a triumph. He has a very slick submission game and when this fight goes to the ground I think he will pick up progress points fast and find a submission. Grant has had problems with entry defense in his career and even when he is winning the feet, he still shoots for takedowns every fight. I think if Manny can not get the takedown himself, then Grant will eventually go to it himself and it will cost him. I believe we can observe a 1st round submission here which should easily get the 10x+ we’re searching for in his $9.2k price label.
Underdog play of this week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this battle he’ll easily repay this price . He has 100-point upside and with a $7.5k salary that will surely place him on the winning lineup if he can get there. Anthony Smith has been knocked out more instances than Shogun and has fought much worse rivalry. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shogun can get a KO here against Smith, who is carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down from the last couple of years but I think he still has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory . I do want exposure to both guys in GPPs, but I think you want some vulnerability to Rua if you’re making multiple lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my selections being correct and that I will hit the right combo. It’s tough to pick one favourite fade this week but I shall pick Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I believe he will use takedowns to acquire the decision win here. So, you would think that seems good on DraftKings since wrestling stands up things. But, he does not chain together takedowns and he usually ends up with just 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much finishing ability and I really don’t see him getting a entry. But I think we will see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way to a Unanimous Decision victory just as we’ve seen from him in the past. Hein has 4 UFC wins and all these are his DraftKings game titles for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in getting any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That’s why he is my fade of the week.
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